GDX
VanEck Gold Miners ETF·Financial Services
99.39
1.057%(+1.04)
Market ClosedLast Updated: — ET
52W L: $45.1052W H: $117.18
VanEck Gold Miners ETF·Financial Services
The dollar's dominance is quietly cracking, which will likely lead to a significant macro shift in the coming years. While I have bet heavily on several real asset sectors, they have all soared materially higher since I started investing in them. I detail two of the best opportunities remaining in the real asset space to benefit from the coming macro shift.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF is rated Buy after a healthy 20% correction, presenting a compelling entry point amid record gold miner profitability. GDX constituents now generate ~$3,000/oz in profit, benefiting from structural tailwinds like central bank gold demand, de-dollarization, and a global rate-cutting cycle. Options flow and institutional positioning data indicate bullish sentiment, with the $100 call wall acting as a near-term target and limited downside protection sought.
Gold mining stocks were reaching for new heights in Q1 2026, but their quest got derailed as uncertainty arose about the outlook. The war in the Middle East can cause all sorts of problems for gold and gold miners, something likely to continue in Q2 2026. While an oil crisis is a short-term headwind for gold and gold miners, the long-term impact could be more positive for both.
For VanEck Gold Miners ETF, weak technical trading may be warning of another round of selling soon, with record low Ease-of-Movement readings a worry for bulls. I anticipate a further -20% to -30% correction in gold/silver miners, driven by credit contraction conditions in the economy and a possible bear market in equities generally. My fair value estimates for gold ($3600) and silver ($50–$55) suggest current prices are vulnerable to a significant pullback into early summer.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) earns a reiterated buy rating, supported by a compelling 11.2x P/E and robust EPS growth expectations. GDX has outperformed both gold and the S&P 500 YoY, despite recent volatility and a 20% pullback from February highs. Portfolio concentration is high, with 61% in the top 10 holdings and over three-quarters in non-US stocks, offering global diversification.
SLVP has outperformed GDX over the past year, charges lower fees, and pays a higher dividend. GDX has outperformed SLVP over the last five years, and is historically less volatile.